Eric Jackson wrote an interesting piece on shorting gold. What was particularly interesting to me, was that he listed the arguments of the bulls (i put them here in CAPS; and gave my counter argument next to it:

- QE3 IS COMING
Ofcourse but the FED is showing signs now of slowing down with the fullblown monetary easing.

- EUROPE IS CRACKING UP
Europe is, albeit slowly, starting to take action

- THERE IS A SUPPLY DEMAND IMBALANCE
Sure but that is mainly because all the other reasons increase the demand so much. When the other bull reasons get neutralized this is no longer the case. So this is not a pro gold argument in itself

- It’s UNDER-OWNED BY PEOPLE AND CENTRAL BANKS
maybe but maybe for good reason. It’s an inflation protector with quite some volatility attached to it.

to all this i’d like to add that demand from China is decreasing if the slowdown there gets more serious.
The bull's can still make a case. The arguments hold up reasonably well. But not like they used too. This is reflected in the recent halt of gold's surge up. It's wavering now and when the bull's cant really make a case anymore, it will be too late. Gold will be down a lot by then.
Ofcourse i could be wrong and i will neutralize my position if i lose my profits on it. But i try to keep running them up.

Just to clear something up. I'm not shorting GLD on the chart i i ncluded. I included the longterm chart of goldprices to show how it has run away from recent historic levels over the last ten years. To show that it has the shape of a bubble spike. I don't see any indications in this chart it should reverse. Trading gold can also hardly be done on fundamentals. Yet i'd like to reïterate; Gold was being bought to speculate against major inflation and the destruction of major currencies. Europe is regaining stability (albeit slowly), Europe is also fighting off deflation and although it's possible the focus will go back on the problems in the U.S (budget deficit, government default etc.) it's not currently there. And the focus might not remain so gloomy.
And just because recently gold showed it's true character. Large volatility and downward risk just like other assets. Investors are realizing it is not so unique after all. This dulled it's shine a bit and it would not surprise me if this turned away a lot of investors looking to it for some kind of ironclad protection. That in turn could trigger selling by speculators who were riding the huge run up. Anyway you get how the spike could reverse course very quickly.

Cautiously i'm going to put on a short on GLD. The price has had an extreme runaway in the past. Has recently started to falter it's tremendous advance. Neither reasons to put my neck on the block. Yet the buzz it had for quite some time, setting high after high has gone away.
It lost some of it's appeal to add it to any stockportfolio as a hedge against market risk, given that it showed recently it can make sharp moves down in a short time. Some bulls have been arguing present and future demand from China. Recently i'm noticing more and more evidence of at least the chance of a significant downturn in the Chinese growth show.
The downside risk of this trade remains unlimited and i will initiate a small position. If it runs away from me i'll cut it at a 10% loss. If it starts to move in the right direction i will gradually increase the position size. I can change my mind on any macro developments.

GLD is at 1705$ now let's see how it goes.